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J Biol Dyn ; 15(1): 195-212, 2021 12.
Article in English | MEDLINE | ID: covidwho-1172612

ABSTRACT

Incidence vs. Cumulative Cases (ICC) curves are introduced and shown to provide a simple framework for parameter identification in the case of the most elementary epidemiological model, consisting of susceptible, infected, and removed compartments. This novel methodology is used to estimate the basic reproduction ratio of recent outbreaks, including those associated with the ongoing COVID-19 pandemic.


Subject(s)
COVID-19/epidemiology , Pandemics/statistics & numerical data , SARS-CoV-2 , Basic Reproduction Number/statistics & numerical data , COVID-19/transmission , China/epidemiology , Computer Simulation , Disease Susceptibility , Gastroenteritis/epidemiology , Humans , Incidence , Mathematical Concepts , Models, Biological , Models, Statistical , Nonlinear Dynamics , Poisson Distribution , Signal-To-Noise Ratio , Spain/epidemiology
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